Dr. Pant posted the lab report and wrote, ‘Do not use antibiotics without consulting a doctor’ and in no time, it went viral in social media groups of doctors’. She did not want to reveal the source of the report, but she further added that such reports of antibiotic resistance keep coming at the Kanti Children’s Hospital where she works.

Similarly, on June 24, the same Klebsiella bacteria was also seen in a patient during a urine test. During the antibiotic sensitivity test, 18 antibiotic-resistant bacteria were found to be resistant.

Comparing the mentioned lab report with the research report of the Ministry of Health (CAPTURA Country Report: Nepal), there are many similarities to confirm the truth. According to the report, most of the antibiotics mentioned in the report are resistant. Reportedly, ampicillin 91.9 percent, amoxycillin 77.43 percent, cefepime 72.58, cefuroxime 65.69, and cefixime 62.69 percent resistance have been observed. In that report, 22 antibiotic-resistant cases have been mentioned, and the least resistant of all was seen in Amikacin with 22.15.

Both the lab report and the study reported harm and danger for random use of antibiotics in Nepal. According to the report, high resistance has been seen in Acinetobacter, E-coil, S. aureus, and S. typhi.
Dr. Madan Upadhyay, former focal person of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) under the Ministry of Health, says that for the last three decades, no new medicine (antibiotic) has been discovered to kill bacteria.
The bacteria have built resistance to the old antibiotics, causing the medicine not to work. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), if this trend continues, it is estimated that by 2050, the number of patients who will die due to antibiotics not working will reach 10 million per year. Doctors say that developing countries like Nepal are suspected to be the most affected by it.

Viruses, bacteria, fungi, and other parasites are also microbials despite their appearance and forms, and the term antimicrobial covers them all.

Former VC and ICU Specialist of Patan Institute of Health Sciences Dr. Arjun Karki said that antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a condition in which bacteria become immune to those drugs that kill them.
“The existence of bacteria is similar to humans, and like us, they also want to survive no matter how hard the situation becomes. They cause diseases and infections, so we want to cure them as soon as possible, but bacteria develop resistance to the medicine, which is called antimicrobial resistance and also antifungal for fungus. Anti-virus is given for viruses,” said Karki.

Susceptibility Testing without Antibiotic Prescription
It is a universal belief that before prescribing antibiotics to patients, healthcare workers should do antibiotic susceptibility testing (AST). According to a study conducted by the Nepal Health Research Council, it has been found that 68 percent of people in Nepal use antibiotics without AST.

According to Dr. Meghnath Dhimal, chief of the research section at the Nepal Health Research Council (NHRC), in the Situational Assessment of Antibiotics Use and its Resistance in Nepal, only 32% of the doctors/health workers have access to laboratory facilities for AST; among them, only 49% recommend antibiotic susceptibility testing before prescribing antibiotics, which is a significant reason for influencing rational prescriptions of antibiotics. Similarly, around 59% of doctors and health workers had heard of national guidelines for antibiotic prescriptions, among which only 54% had access.

Community Pharmacies: The majority of the drug dispensers (43.4%) dispense antibiotics without a doctor’s or health worker’s prescription.

Azithromycin (24.5%), Amoxicillin/Amoxyclav (20.5%), Cefixime (14.8%), Ciprofloxacin (14.1%), and Metronidazole (9%) were the most commonly dispensed antibiotics without prescriptions from doctors and health workers.

Outpatients: The majority of the outpatients (85.4%) consult with doctors or health workers before consuming antibiotics. About one-fourth (22%) of the outpatients did not consume a full course of antibiotics. Similarly, about 10% and 8% of the outpatients consume antibiotics as prophylaxis and consume double-dose antibiotics for fastest recovery, respectively. Around 22% of them save residual antibiotics for treating similar symptoms in the future. Additionally, around 28% of the outpatients mentioned that they buy antibiotics without a doctor’s or health worker’s prescription.

Prescription and consumption of antibiotics: About 85% of health workers/doctors did not prescribe antibiotics by their generic name. Similarly, more than one-third, that is, 37.8%, of prescribed medicines were antibiotics, which is higher than the standard as given by the WHO. The consumption of antibiotics by inpatients based on the AWaRe classification showed a majority of antibiotics consumed was from the Watch group, i.e., 70%, followed by the Access group, i.e., 29.8%, and 0.1% was from the Reserve group. The five most frequently consumed antibiotics were ceftriaxone, metronidazole, ornidazole, piperacillin tazobactam, and azithromycin, respectively.

Veterinarians/Para-veterinarians: About 34% of veterinarians/para-veterinarians have access to laboratory facilities for AST in their working area; among them, only 32% recommend susceptibility testing prior to antibiotic prescriptions. Additionally, it was found that only 18% of veterinarians/para-veterinarians always recommend antibiotic susceptibility tests before prescribing antibiotics.

Veterinary Pharmacists : About 66% of the veterinary pharmacists do not keep an animal’s record for dispensing antibiotics, and the majority of veterinary pharmacists consider the weight of the animal before prescribing antibiotics. Tetracycline, oxytetracycline, enrofloxacin, and gentamicin were identified as the most commonly dispensed antibiotics from the vet pharmacies.

Farmers (Cattle/Poultry) : Around 44% of the farmers responded that they treat their sick animals by themselves. The majority of the farmers treat animals by using local medicines (37.4%), followed by buying drugs (30.5%), and isolating sick animals from others (15.5%) as measures for self-treatment. More than half (55%) of the farmers were found using residual antibiotics for the future.

Random use of antibiotics
A cross-sectional study at Patan Hospital in 2021 found that the total DDD of parenteral antibiotics increased by 23% from 2017 to 2019. An older assessment in 2017 found that 79% of 324 participants (selected from the public) purchased antibiotics over the counter, and 43% of the participants understood that fever could be treated with antibiotics. The same study interviewed 33 private pharmacies, 23% of whom responded that antibiotics could be used to treat viral diseases.

Some hospitals have given strong antibiotics to patients as soon as they enter the hospital. A few years ago, in a study conducted by swasthyakhabar.com, it was seen that B&B Hospital in Kathmandu used antibiotics without AST. In a study conducted on four patients, it was seen in the pharmacy bill of the hospital that antibiotics were used continuously for 37 to 52 days even after resistance.

The lab report of B&B Hospital has shown that the two drugs used in the patient (colistin and Cilanem) have been repeatedly resistant. According to the lab test, one patient, Arjun Bhandari, was found to have antibiotic resistance to imipenem (Cilanem) five times and colistin four times.

However, the use of antibiotics has continued. They looked for an alternative to B&B Hospital because the infection was not controlled even after long treatment. Dhan Bahadur Khadka made a special report on this topic in the Swasthya Khabar newspaper in April 2016. The case filed by the hospital against the report reached the Supreme Court through the District Court and High Court.

Later, after a long run, the Supreme Court decided in favor of Dhan Bahadur Khadka and Swasthya Khabar newspaper.

Antibiotics in poultry and fish
According to the study published in MDPI titled “Antibiotic Use in Broiler Poultry Farms in Kathmandu Valley of Nepal: Which Antibiotics and Why?”, a cross-sectional questionnaire study was conducted involving field visits to large poultry farms (flock size ≥ 3000) in the Kathmandu, Bhaktapur, and Lalitpur districts. Out of 30 farms (total flock size 104,200; range 3000–6000), the prevalence of antibiotic use was 90% (95% CI: 73–98%). Six farms (22%) used antibiotics as prophylaxis, while 21 farms (78%) used them for therapeutic purposes. A total of seven antibiotics from six classes (including quinolones, macrolides, and polymyxins) were used. The most commonly used antibiotics were tylosin (47%), colistin (47%), and dual therapies with neomycin and doxycycline (33%). In total, 50,000 grams of antibiotics (including both active and inactive ingredients) were used, averaging 0.5 grams per chicken over a 45-day flock life, with eight farms (26%) using more than two antibiotics.

Dr. Samirmani Dixit said that antibiotics are being used in chickens and fish at an alarming rate. “Antibiotics have been mixed with fish meal and poultry feed. Especially chicken chicks should be given a vaccine, but instead of that, the practice of giving antibiotics is increasing,” Dixti added.

According to Dr. Dixit, this is being done because after giving antibiotics, the chickens will become stronger, not get sick, and also give better eggs. Some time ago, in a study conducted by the Department of Food Technology and Quality Control, it was found that the use of antibiotics in broiler chicken (poultry chicken) meat was excessive.

In the study report of the department, it is mentioned that the amount of tetracycline, macrolides, aminoglycides, sulfonamide, and penicillin, among others, was found in chicken meat. The department collected 75 samples and conducted a study titled ‘Antibiotic Residue in Chicken Meat: A Potential Threat to Food Safety’.

Due to the weak monitoring system in Nepal, the rate of consumption of antibiotics in the veterinary sector has increased recently, Dixit further said. “The bacteria that digested the antibiotics in the chicken’s body have been released very harmfully after moving into the human body.”

He says that the danger caused by the bacteria entering the human body due to eating undercooked chicken meat can be lethal. In addition, he pointed out that the use of antibiotics is increasing in pigs, vegetables, and cattle to produce more milk as well.

It has affected people. Within animal health, a 2020 publication examined poultry rectal swabs and urine from patients visiting Kantipur Hospital in Kathmandu and found multidrug resistance in 80% of E. coli from poultry and 79% from clinical specimens.

In the fiscal year 2017-2018, an assessment of 150 commercial poultry farmers gave insight into farmers’ knowledge, attitudes, and practices. Notably, antimicrobial use for growth promotion was employed by 13% of producers, among whom 35% were using colistin. (The Swasthya Khabar newspaper has written about this in detail in January 2017).

Nepal at high risk
Various studies have shown that antimicrobial resistance is increasing in Nepal. Nepali medical experts and doctors say that Nepal is one of the countries where antibiotics are becoming more ineffective. In charge of the ICU of the TU Teaching Hospital, Dr. Subash Acharya, up to 70 percent of the bacteria (superbugs) that have digested the strongest antibiotics are found in hospitals in Nepal. Whereas in America it is only 10 to 20 percent.

Doctors say that a patient who came to the hospital with some other disease died of pneumonia. According to Dr. Acharya, this death is due to the failure of antibiotics, and pneumonia can happen when the medicine doesn’t work.

Antimicrobial resistance contributes approximately 700,000 deaths annually, and by 2030 it is estimated of global economic loss of more than $ 1.0 trillion annually. It is estimated that by 2030, AMR could force up to 24 million people into extreme poverty and could jeopardize the achievements of the Sustainable Development Goals 2030 for ending poverty, ending hunger, ensuring healthy living, reducing inequality, and revitalizing global development partnerships.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared AMR among the top 10 global health threats; it can no longer be addressed by single, isolated interventions with limited impact.

Pneumonia is also caused by hospital-acquired infections because hospital walls, gowns worn by health workers, and equipment also contain bacteria that have digested antibiotics. Acharya said that it will be difficult to protect the patient if they are infected. These bacteria called’superbugs’ are becoming a new challenge in the world. The hospitals should be needed to control it. He said that even though the drugstore, hospital management, and doctors were aware of this, they did not pay proper attention.

Attention of policymakers
Only recently have the stakeholders started talking about AMR. At the 79th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) high-level meeting, world political leaders have expressed commitment to a clear set of targets and action plan to reduce human deaths associated with AMR, including reducing the estimated 4.95 million human deaths associated with bacterial antimicrobials.

The declaration also calls for sustainable national financing and US$100 million in catalytic funding, to help achieve a target of at least 60% of countries having funded national action plans on AMR by 2030. This goal is to be reached through, for example, diversifying funding sources and securing more contributors to the Antimicrobial Resistance Multi-Partner Trust Fund.

Head of the ICU department, Dr. Acharya, says that there is a growing fear if the world leaders don’t take this matter seriously because now the biggest fear for humans is from bacteria. So, special attention has also been started because bacteria are the cause of various infections.
“The world has felt the challenge from bacteria after the medicine given against bacteria (antibiotics) started to be ineffective,” Acharya said.

Dr. Roshan Pokharel, secretary of the ministry, says that the study on AMR has been increased, and policies like the National Action Plan for Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) in Nepal have been made. At the South Asia Regional Media Workshop to Prevent Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) held in Kathmandu some time ago, he said, they have made a policy. Now is the time to unite for implementation.

According to Dr. Pokharel, in May 2015, the 68th World Health Assembly endorsed the Global Action Plan (GAP) on Antimicrobial Resistance (GAP-AMR) to tackle AMR and urged the member countries to make their own National Action Plan on AMR in alignment with GAP-AMR by May 2017. Commitment by global leaders to combat AMR was further strengthened at the High-Level Meeting on AMR at the United Nations General Assembly on 21 September 2016. He added, ‘The Government of Nepal has undertaken several measures to address the commitment made to contain the challenges of AMR in Nepal. The National Health Policy of Nepal, 2076 BS, has prioritized AMR as an important public health issue and has highlighted the need to develop a national action plan (NAP) to reduce AMR and effectively regulate and control antibiotic use through multisectoral collaborative action. With the growing burden of AMR in the country and commitment made, Nepal requires a National Action Plan (NAP) to tackle the issue of AMR through a ‘One Health’ Approach.’

Dr. Madan Upadhyay says that if humans are not to be defeated in the battle with bacteria, they should be stopped from allowing the bacteria to digest the existing medicine until a new medicine is discovered. He further says, there has been no new antibiotic as a reserve for the past 30 years. “There is a need to work on it as soon as possible,” said Upadhyay.

“The only way to prevent this is stewardship. ‘Every hospital should implement a stewardship program. The government should make a rule that the stewardship program should be implemented compulsorily when renewing or renewing the license of hospitals with more than 100 beds,” said Acharya. “Considering hospital pharmacy as the backbone to support the hospital is the biggest weakness,” he added.

(Khadka is the Executive Editor at NepaliLiveToday.com’s sister organization, the health-related news magazine Swasthyakhabar Patrika)

The Declaration signed by Dr Aliza K C Bhandari, Chair of Fifth Global Nepali Health Conference, Dr. Lushun Chalise, Chair of Scientific Committee, Dr Sunil Sah, Co-Chair of Global Health Committee and Dr Sanjeeb Sapkota, Chair of Global Health Committee has acknowledged the unique role and accountability of the participants in improving the health and well-being of Nepali migrants working globally and their access to basic healthcare.

What’s in the declaration?

The Declaration has included following points as realities and commitments for maintaining health and improving it for the Nepali people around the world:

1. Health as a universal human right is a priority for all individuals, communities, states, and nations. We affirm the importance of ensuring that no Nepalese person is left behind in accessing health information and services worldwide.

2. We call upon governments of host countries, where Nepalese reside, study, or work, to guarantee access to basic universal health care for Nepalese migrants. We also urge bilateral and multilateral agencies, organizations, and associations to recognize and address the health needs of migrants.

3. Integrated medical care, nursing care, and public health management are essential for effectively addressing diseases and their risk factors. We acknowledge the significant role of health advocates and activists in this integrated approach.

4. Migrants face unique health challenges, and we recognize the need for tailored approaches to address these challenges effectively.

5. We note the alarming increase in migrant suicides and its socio-economic impact. We call upon Nepali mental health professionals around the world to unite and provide support for those affected.

6. We advocate for integrated healthcare provision to maximize health benefits, whether for diseases like diabetes, depression, cancer, or COVID-19, and their risk factors such as obesity, malnutrition, or physical inactivity.

7. Achieving comprehensive health management requires collaborative effort of clinicians, public health experts, nurses, and social health workers. This conference aims to bring these healthcare professionals together for holistic health care.

8. We acknowledge the essential role of each participant, partner, individual, agency, and organization in providing healthcare to Nepalese globally.

9. Recognizing health inequity as a cause of health disparities, we emphasize the need to discuss and address its root causes effectively.

10. We pledge to unite in a global network of health professionals to improve healthcare delivery for the Nepalese community. We also call upon Nepali-origin nurses, whether affiliated with health teams worldwide or working independently, to join a network of Nepalese nurses to enhance healthcare for the Nepalese community.

11. We are delighted to witness the launch of the Japan Nepali Medical Association, which aims to strengthen networking among Nepalese health professionals and provide services to medically marginalized Nepalese migrants in Japan.

12. We acknowledge the main barriers to migrants’ access to healthcare are language, culture, legal and financial status, education level, and unseen biases. This conference takes a significant step towards removing these barriers and improving healthcare for migrants by providing a solid platform for various individuals and organizations working on migrants to connect to relevant experts and agencies.

13. Recognizing the importance of mental health in overall well-being, we commit to addressing mental health issues within our healthcare initiatives.

14. We highlight the significance of research in the development of the health sector and pledge to support Nepalese researchers worldwide.

15. The health of women, including preventive, curative, and promotive care, is crucial for families, communities, and nations. We call upon all stakeholders to prioritize and enhance the health of Nepalese women worldwide.

16. We strive to establish telehealth, language services, referrals, and online translation services for community members in need.

17. Collaboration among healthcare professionals can enhance our efforts and lead to improved health outcomes for Nepalese people around the globe.

18. We recognize the growing need for a scientific journal dedicated to the health of global Nepali communities. We have committed to creating a compendium of the scientific sessions of the 5th Global Nepali Health Conference as a valuable scientific reference.

19. We recognize the need for a safe working environment for medical practitioners to give their best to save patients` lives and ensure their welfare. The global Nepalese community should condemn any kind of violence against health workers in the strongest words.

20. Universal healthcare cannot be achieved by the health sector alone. We emphasize the importance of collaboration and partnership across related sectors to optimize health outcomes for Nepalese all around the world.

In 2010-11, a seven-month-long process continued to elect the Prime Minister as no candidate was able to muster 301 votes in the house of 601 despite 16 rounds of voting. 

Finally, in January 2011, Ram Chandra Paudel gave up his hope of becoming the Prime Minister following the official decision of Nepali Congress to formally withdraw the candidature of its parliamentary party leader Ram Chandra Paudel. CPN (UML) and Maoist forces were against him during that race.  

More than a decade later, Ram Chandra Paudel became Nepal’s head of state with support from Maoist forces and other parties after tireless efforts to keep the major political forces into confidence. 

Ram Chandra Paudel had started showing his presidential ambition before the federal parliament and provincial assemblies elections that took place in November 2022. 

He looked confident that he would secure the position of the president if the Congress-Maoist Center alliance remained intact after the elections. After calculating the situation, he started taking the Maoist chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal into confidence before the election campaigns started. 

Both Dahal and Paudel kept on appreciating each other in mass gatherings and other informal meetings during the election campaigns. Paudel appreciated Dahal as a leader with high possibility of becoming the executive head while Dahal appreciated him as a leader to form the Democrat-Communist alliance. 

It was still challenging for Paudel to become the presidential candidate from his own party. Though he had developed a good rapport with his party rival and Nepali Congress president Sher Bahadur Deuba since the 14th general convention of the party, it was not enough to secure his nomination as the president. 

This time, he played well in terms of managing leaders. He tried to win the confidence of Deuba. He unconditionally supported Deuba during the Nepali Congress’ parliamentary elections process. 

However, things didn’t go as expected. In December 2022, Maoist Center formally ended its alliance with Nepali Congress to form an alliance with CPN-UML. Many had predicted that his dream of becoming the President would be shattered, again. 

Paudel appeared frustrated. He, however, did not criticize the Maoist forces. He publicly commented that Nepali Congress was responsible for the end of alliance and Maoist chair Prachanda was left with no option than to form a new alliance with Maoist Center. 

In a dramatic political twist, Nepali Congress decided to support Pushpa Kamal Dahal in the parliamentary floor test. At that point, his hope of becoming the president was revived. 

Latest political developments favored him. Newly formed UML-Maoist alliance could not go well. And Nepali Congress, regardless of internal factions, strongly stood in favor of its own presidential candidate. 

Nepali politics developed a new course and Maoist Center again returned to the alliance with Nepali Congress, making his dream of becoming the president come true.

Paudel, who claims to be an ardent follower of BP Koirala’s democratic socialism, has a long history of fighting for democracy in the country.  He has promised to uphold democratic values and the constitution as the head of state.

Baitadi was a society known for Deuda, a typical Nepali folk genre of song and dance performed in the Sudur Paschim and Karnali provinces of the country. Instead of choosing that genre, he released his first album “Aanshu” (tear in English), a collection of modern Nepali songs, in 1996. 

The first album met with moderate success–in the era when cassette players, a major medium to reach out to the music lovers back in those days, were in vogue. Yet, the overall sales of his album was good.

Then this singer with an extraordinary voice disappeared all of a sudden. He was not heard. He was not seen. In a way, he was in hibernation.

Tilak Pela has now made a comeback in Nepal’s musical sphere with a different flavor of music. To borrow the jargon of the digital world, he has now become ‘viral.’ His new song “Ke Lat Basyo Malai” has been liked by many Nepalis. 

A singer has reemerged after 25 years in hibernation. 

A singer with a deep voice, Pela has been able to contribute quality music to Nepal’s music industry. Steadily, Pela is becoming talk of the town, especially among music lovers. The feedback by the audience on social media speaks volumes of his acceptability. 

“Ke Lat Basyo Malai” is becoming popular. People are appreciating his deep voice. Some people are even asking where this extraordinary singer has been for so many years.

Pela, however, is not much concerned about the buzz in the market. He is not bothered whether he fits in the definition of popular music or not. 

He strongly believes that popularity without hard work is meaningless. 

Popularity without quality work is a kind of injustice to music lovers, he says. That was the reason he took a long break from the music sector. He was searching for a Guru who could guide him to the right path. He met Pandit Dhana Bahadur Gopali and started a deep search for music. His passion did not end there. He kept on searching for Gurus of classical music. He went to Banaras and became a disciple of Debashish. 

Afterwards, he also started sharing his musical skills and knowledge with others. He started Shree Krishna Gurukul Pathshala in Kathmandu. 

Though he had disappeared in the eyes of others, he was in the course of finding himself through music. He believes that celebrity-dom does not make us wise. Our inner soul should be satisfied and we need to internalize the things that we are doing. “People thought that I was lost but I was making my presence through my learning. I was internalizing the essence of music,” Pela said.

By his personality traits, Pela does not chase popularity. For many years, he was reluctant to record new songs and make them public. 

But not long ago, he suddenly realized that he had promised to sing a song by a songwriter, who had already composed the music. “I deeply felt that I had done injustice to the songwriter by not recording the song,” he recalled. Then he made another song, called ‘Nirjan Kinar,’ public. But the song could not make it to the hit list. 

Last week, he released another song “Ke Lat Lagyo Malai…”. The song is now becoming popular among Nepalis. The song took a slow start. It was not noticed by YouTube users in the initial few days. But when people realized the depth of his voice and the feeling reverated in the song, he is now appreciated by many.

The story behind ‘Ke Lat Lagyo’ is also interesting. Pela himself did not want to become the singer of this particular song. He actually had wanted his student Kamal Bishta to sing the song.  But Pradeep Kumar Mainali, the writer of the gajal, was so impressed with Pela’s quality of voice that he asked him to sing the song instead. Pela could not say ‘no’ to the request by Mainali. 

As a result, Nepal’s music industry got a brilliant piece. Pela has now become a popular singer. He is getting noticed. I am satisfied with the reactions from listers, he says. 
Pela is now back, with big vibration, with hope and with quality in music.  

The results clearly show that the country will have hung parliament, with no party having an absolute majority to form and run the new government. 

The electoral alliance did not help. 

At least five ruling parties–Nepali Congress, Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist-Center), CPN (United Socialist), Rastriya Janamorcha and Loktantrik Sawajwadi Party–had formed the democrat-communist alliance to bring more parliamentary seats into their fold. Similarly, Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) had also formed a loose alliance comprising Rastriya Prajatantra Party, Janata Samajwadi Party and Rastriya Prajatantra Party Nepal and some fringe parties at regional level.

The outcome has not favored either alliance.  Neither an individual party nor the alliance has secured enough seats to form the new government. 

Who won how many seats?

As of Wednesday afternoon, vote counting results from 161 constituencies out of 165 have been declared. 

The vote counting process in one constituency is underway while the counting process has been halted in three constituencies in Dolakha, Bajura and Syangja over the electoral fraud row. 

Nepali Congress is leading the vote count tally with 54 seats under the first-past-to-the-post system followed by CPN-UML and Maoist-Center that have secured 44 and 17 seats, respectively. 

CPN (Unified Socialist) has garnered 10 seats while three political forces Janata Samajwadi Party, Rastriya Prajatantra Party and Rashtriya Swatantra Party have got 7 seats each. 

Loktantrik Samajwadi Party has secured four seats while newly formed Nagarik Unmukti Party has garnered three seats. 

Nepal Workers’ and Peasants’ Party, Janamat Party and Rashtriya Janamorcha each have secured one seat while independent candidates have won from five electoral constituencies. 

Indications of PR votes

Vote count tally under the proportional representation (PR) category of the federal parliament elections follow the same trend. Out of 10.07 million votes counted until Wednesday afternoon, CPN-UML is leading with 2.7 million votes followed by Nepali Congress that has secured 2.56 million votes. 

CPN (Maoist-Center), Rashtriya Swatantra Party, Rashtriya Prajatantra Party have obtained 1.14 million, 1.09 million and 0.57 million votes, respectively. 

Janata Samajbadi Party and Janamat Party have secured 402 and 367 thousands votes, respectively. The CPN (Unified Socialist) party is still struggling to ensure the status of national party. 

Nepal’s election laws require a political party to cross the threshold of three percent of total valid votes to get the status of national party. And the party’s votes under the proportional representation system will have no meaning if it fails to cross the minimum threshold.

Uncertainty everywhere

To Nepali Congress leaders, however, look convinced that the parties in the ruling alliance together will be able to secure enough seats to form the government. As such, they have started lobbying for the post of prime minister. But vote counting in the PR category shows that they might not be able to win the number of seats required to form the government.

Given the current trend and tally, Nepali Congress is likely to win 32 seats under the PR category. Together with FPTP seats, NC is likely to secure 87 seats.    Maoist Center is likely to have a total of 31 seats and Unified Socialist is less likely to secure any PR seats unless they secure enough votes to fulfill the criteria for national party status. 

Given the existing situation, these three parties in the alliance are likely to secure a total of 128 seats–ten seats short of the 138 seats required to form the government. 

Adding Loktantrik Samajwadi’s four seats and Rastriya Janamorcha’s one seat to it, it will only be 133. Even if the ruling alliance clinches victory in the three constituencies (where vote counting is yet to start, the total number will not be more than 136.  Ruling alliance may have to reach out, or woo, the independents or the fringe parties for two more seats.

Political force like the Rastriya Swatantra Party is likely to become a kingmaker and the ruling alliance is likely to secure its support. But RSP has already ruled out the possibility of joining the government under the leadership of ‘former prime ministers.’ Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) is less likely to join the fray for it was in alliance with CPN-UML. And there is less likelihood of Janata Samajwadi Party being roped in for it broke away the alliance on the eve of elections.

Ruling alliance is looking to woo the Nagarik Unmukti Party with four seats. It has even initiated the talks with Resham Chaudhary, who is serving a jail term on charge of masterminding the Tikapur massacre, but is a de facto leader of NUP.  But for this, the alliance has to ensure Chaudhary’s amnesty, which he has been demanding. Bringing NUP to its fold could also help the ruling alliance to form governments in Sudur Paschim and Karnali provinces.

The leaders of the ruling alliance are also trying to woo the Janamat Party–the new force led by CK Raut. But the leaders of this party have staked claims on the government leadership in Madhesh province. The parties in the ruling alliance look intent on taking government leadership of Madesh by themselves.

Prabhu Shah’s group has won two seats.  He could be instrumental in helping the ruling alliance to secure 138 seats for government formation.

Can UML do it?

CPN-UML and the parties associated with it in loose alliance fall far short of 138 seats. But if ever this camp is to lead the government, UML chair KP Oli is sure to stake the claim. In that case, NSP is not going to support him as it has already declared. The group led by Prabhu Shah is not likely to join the government under Oli’s leadership for he severed ties with UML on the election eve over the differences with Oli.

Perhaps aware of these complexities, Oli made a telephone call to Maoist Center chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal last Thursday and proposed a rapprochement. But Dahal has shown no sign of staying out of the current alliance.

Within Nepali Congress, leadership change has become a fiercely discussed issue. If the Congress elects Gagan Thapa over Sher Bahadur Deuba in the parliamentary party election, power equation and alliance formation might change. But in that case, there is a speculation in political circle, Dahal, given his track record of standing against the idea of leadership handover, might rather accept the leadership of Oli. 

Nothing has become impossible in Nepali politics over the last many years, especially when it comes to making and breaking the governments.

The initial results have clearly indicated that Nepali people stood for change, in many ways. Some election results have given a clear “message” to heavyweights of major political parties.

Voters, in many constituencies, have crossed the party legacy and influence.

Nepali voters have always given “surprising” verdicts during elections after the restoration of democracy in 1990. The pattern found continuity this time as well. 

Though the top leaders of almost all political parties secured their victory as they contested from the “pocket area” of their parties, interestingly, their ‘yes-men’, despite being powerful in party politics, have lost the elections. 

Rise of rebels in Congress  

In the Nepali Congress, where several of the members have expressed dissatisfaction with the conduct of party president Sher Bahadur Deuba, leaders critical of Deuba have emerged victorious.  Examples are the General Secretary duo Gagan Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma.  Both Thapa and Sharma had challenged the leadership of Deuba in the party’s General Convention and won the general assembly elections from the rival camp led by Dr Shekhar Koirala. 

Gagan Thapa, who secured a landslide victory from Kathmandu-4, has announced to contest the parliamentary party election, challenging Deuba.  Sharma has announced that he would propose Thapa as a parliamentary party leader. “I will be proposing Thapa first as the parliamentary leader and then as the country’s prime minister,” Sharma has said.

Both Thapa and Sharma won the elections by drubbing their nearest rivals by a wide margin. While Thapa defeated CPN-UML’s Rajan Bhattarai with over 7000 votes, Sharma defeated UML’s Agni Kharel in Jhapa-1 by securing over 14,000 votes.

‘Yes men’ lose in UML and Maoist Center

Leaders who served as the general secretaries in CPN-UML and Maoist Center have lost the elections. UML General Secretary Shankar Pokhrel, who was also the Chief Minister of Lumbini province, lost the election. Maoist Center’s Rekha Sharma won from his constituency. 

Pokhrel’s defeat is an unexpected outcome for the UML, given that he was the leader credited for shifting the provincial capital of Lumbini to Dang.  Besides, Rekha Sharma got the election ticket after Krishna Bahadur Mahara, who was considered to be a more influential leader, decided not to contest the polls. Pokhrel’s defeat is a setback for UML chief KP Sharma Oli as well for Oli had projected Pokhrel as his successor in the party, while relegating Bishnu Paudel, who was the General Secretary when UML-Maoist Center was together as Nepal Communist Party, to the status of deputy.

Pokhrel’s role was conspicuous for blindly supporting every move of Oli. Pokhrel’s defeat can be taken as the voters teaching him a lesson for this.

Maoist Center and its chief Pushpa Kamal Dahal have suffered a serious setback in this election. Dev Gurung, Dahal’s ‘yes man’ and therefore the General Secretary of the party, has lost the election. Gurung had risen to the post of General Secretary by sidelining Barshaman Pun and Janardan Sharma, two other influential leaders of the party. Gurung lost the election to Prithvi Subba Gurung in Lamjung.     

Likewise, most heavyweights like deputy-general secretary Jibanram Shrestha,  and secretaries like Jagannath Khatiwada and Ram Kumari Jhakri from CPN(Unified Socialist) have also suffered a defeat in this election.